Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (as well as More Intractable)?
Shutdowns are a repeat feature of US politics – but the current situation appears particularly intractable because of political dynamics along with bad blood between the two parties.
Certain federal operations are temporarily suspended, and about 750,000 employees likely to be placed on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats can't agree on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse have repeatedly failed, with little visibility on a clear resolution path in this instance because both parties – including the President – perceive advantages in digging in.
These are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted over recent periods for their representatives more forcefully fights the Trump administration. Well now Democratic leaders have an opportunity to show they have listened.
In March, Senate leader was fiercely criticised after supporting GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This is a chance for Democrats to demonstrate they can take back certain authority from a presidency that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Refusing to back the GOP budget proposal carries electoral dangers as citizens generally may become impatient with prolonged negotiations and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are leveraging the shutdown fight to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support and GOP-backed federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done in international assistance and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they perceive an opening to make more of the cutbacks to the federal workforce implemented during the current presidential term to date.
The nation's leader personally stated recently that the government closure had afforded him a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials stated they would face a "challenging responsibility" of mass lay-offs to keep essential government services operating if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "budgetary responsibility".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, but the White House has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The budget director has previously declared the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by the opposition party, including New York City and Chicago.
3. There's little trust on either side
While previous shutdowns have been characterised by late-night talks between the two parties in an effort to get government services running again, there appears to be minimal cooperative willingness of collaboration this time.
Conversely, there is rancour. The bad blood persisted recently, as both sides exchanging accusations regarding the deadlock's origin.
The legislative leader a Republican, charged opposition members with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and maintaining positions during discussions "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the Senate leader made similar charges at the other side, saying that a Republican promise regarding health funding talks once the government reopens can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has escalated tensions through sharing a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader and the top Democrat in the House, where the representative is depicted with traditional headwear and facial hair.
The representative with party colleagues called this racist, a characterization rejected by the Vice-President.
Fourth, The American Economy is fragile
Analysts expect approximately two-fifths of the federal workforce – over 800,000 workers – to face furlough as a result of the government closure.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, patent approvals, interrupted vendor payments and other kinds of federal operations connected to commercial interests comes to a halt.
A shutdown also injects new uncertainty within economic systems already being roiled by changes ranging from trade measures, earlier cuts to government spending, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, as it would after disruption after major environmental events.
That could be one reason why financial markets has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, analysts say that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.